For this sample, I’m using a fake country called Bree and I fabricated all the details about the challenges, geography, etc.
Bree launches with FIO
Bree is a country with 20 million people and almost enough microclimates for every one of them. Much of the country went without local forecasts and even when they had them, they only applied to a small percentage of the population. This has changed in recent weeks as FIO’s forecast models have come online.
Training the models was difficult but after weeks of validation and testing, forecasts are provided to the entire country through a website and mobile app. Residents can also call or text a local number to receive the latest forecast.
The challenge
Bree was an interesting use case for the FIO team. The models needed to be tuned to the various microclimates, but Bree’s proximity to Giant Lake created additional complexity. Tweaking models for microclimates is common but Giant Lake was an issue for two reasons:
The lake sits to the west of Bree. Prevailing winds come from the west and the water modifies the air that passes over it, which impacts temperatures across Bree, particularly near the coast.
During the fall and spring, winds become more erratic as the seasons change. In the fall, winds shift more to the north (cool air moves south from the pole), and in the spring they shift to the south (warm air moves north from the equator).
The solution
These variables make for a tricky forecast. To solve for them, the FIO team worked with local residents and government officials to put together a bespoke set of historical data. This new data compliments existing datasets, and the models now work off both sources.
To build the historical dataset, we primarily worked with Jen Celsius, the head of Bree’s weather service. Jen spent numerous hours collecting weather logs, talking with residents, and reviewing various publications. She was an amazing partner throughout the process, and we wanted to pass along something that she shared with us:
Believe it or not, I’ve been waiting for this day since I was a kid. I had a little backyard weather station that I’d check every day and I’d put together forecasts for my family. They weren’t too accurate but my family got a kick out of them.
My mom has been reporting back to me on how the FIO forecasts are doing for their home. Yesterday they were spot on for temps and only a few knots off on wind speed. I’ll take that any day!